Global Growth Forecast Slows, But U.S. Outlook Remains Stable
While fears spread of a serious slowdown in the global economy, expectations of U.S. GDP growth for 2019 softened versus 2018 but the quarterly U.S. GDP growth rate of 2% or more is expected for the months ahead.
That's lower GDP growth than after the tax bill that kicked in January 2018, but in line with long-term growth expectations. The LEI collapsed before previous recessions and it is certainly not collapsing now.
Slightly more optimistic is the forecast of 60 leading economists surveyed in early February by The Wall Street Journal, who expected an average 2.2% rate of quarterly GDP growth over the six quarters ahead. Again, this is certainly not a forecast for a recession.
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