An Early Indication The Economy Is Stronger Than Expected
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast is designed to grow more accurate in the closing days of every quarter and in the three weeks after every quarter, before the actual GDP figure is released by the Commerce Department.
With the first quarter over and the release of the actual figures only two weeks away, the GDPNow estimate for first-quarter 2019 growth of 2.1% is much higher than the 1.3% consensus estimate of the 60 economists polled just three weeks ago by The Wall Street Journal. To be clear, the actual GDP figure to be released in three weeks may be 60% higher than the consensus forecast!
The J.P. Morgan Global Composite Purchasing Manager's Index accelerated in March, the worst of economic news to come out of Europe as well as China could be behind us, with a trade war with China starting to look less likely.
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